We moved to Kamalasai in the dry season. One really doesn't need to look a a weather forecast in dry season, because it doesn't rain. And the temperatures are relatively similar each day. But as rainy season approached, I started to look at the forecasts more. For many days on end, there would be a probablility of precipitation between 30 and 35 percent. One would figure that it would rain about once every three days—but it didn't.
Later I figured that the forecasters must just be good statiticians, because as long as you predict a number between 1 and 99 percent, you're never wrong, you're just playing the odds. You just might not want to bring these people along as consultants when you go to the casino.
But then this happened: they predicted a 100% chance of preciptation for a certain portion of one afternoon, but then they changed their mind and lowered it before the time came. This has happened on more than one occasion. Are they allowed to do that? I mean, I think that if you predict a 100% chance of something, then you are committed to the outcome.
My wife told me an old German saying that seems to be a good weather forecasting tool:
Kräht der Hahn auf dem Mist, ändert sich das Wetter oder bleibt, wie es ist
Which roughly translates: When the rooster crows in the manure pile, the weather will change — or stay the same.
We're fortunate that we have a weather forecaster that lives across the street from us. This cockerel belongs to the proprietor of a coffin maker, and it hangs out in front of shop all day and all night, every day. It may not have a manure pile, but this prognosticator of precipitation starts his forecast about 3 am each day: the weather will either change or stay the same.
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| This Storm Passed us by to the North |
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| This Storm Passed us by to the South - with Lots of Thunder |
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| This Storm Finally Brought us Rain |
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